Predicting future trends from past results can generally be quite successful; however, the more variables involved, the less accurate the prediction. That’s why this blog post seems a little bit like throwing statistical darts. Nevertheless, the Mortgage Bankers Association threw those darts, and Bill Conerly provided a nice summary for Forbes. Net net? If death rates hold, child bearing age doesn’t change too much, immigration predictions are right, and Millennials throw a monkey wrench, then we could be looking at 1.6 million new units per year over the next decade.
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