Monday, USA Today carried an interesting piece, touching on the likely impacts of a Fed rate increase. The article focused on the auto and home industries in particular, and for their housing analysis, they came to the same conclusion that everyone else has for several months: a rate hike is unlikely to affect the market. But there was another interesting tidbit in there. They’re expecting home sales to increase by only 4% in 2016 (vs. 8% this year). The reason may surprise you — the limited supply of homes available may push prices up by as much as 5%!

 

We’ve written several times over the last few months about the housing market finally being, if not fully, than at least very nearly fully recovered. Of course, that’s good for the housing market. But Bloomberg wrote yesterday about The End of The Housing Hangover. The phrasing is both important and pretty good. Because in many ways, the effects of the extended recovery have served as a sort of hangover, enervating the economy as a whole. Maybe now, it can only finally start looking up.

 

In a fairly obscure piece of mortgage related news, the EU’s European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has proposed relaxing their current two-day liquidation period, at least when dealing with U.S. mortgage-backed securities (the U.S. has a one-day period). The change of one day may seem particularly obtuse to those not immersed in banking lore, but it has a significant impact on capital requirements, which ultimately means better liquidity for deals on both sides of the pond, which should result in a continuation of relatively loose lending — a boon for both buyers and sellers.

 

There are a lot of regulations in the mortgage industry. Mostly, you don’t need to understand them — that’s why you have a loan officer and work with a professional institution. Nevertheless, you’ll get exposed to a bunch of acronyms, and it’s always frustrating when you don’t understand what people are talking about. Devon Thorsby, Real Estate reporter at U.S. News, put together this super clear, simple guide to some of the big ones: TILA, TRID, QM, RESPA, Dodd-Frank.

 

A couple of days ago, we shared the insights of one home buyer who extolled the virtues of shopping for a home in the depths of winter. But it isn’t all just about the buyer. U.S. News & World Report wrote about the advantages of selling in the winter from an investor’s perspective. Some of their reasoning is market specific (e.g., if you’re selling in Florida, winter is a great time to capture snowbirds), but they also make some generic points that hold no matter where you’re home is.

 

There have been a number of articles over the last weeks indicating that the housing market is strong enough to continue growth, even in the face of a Fed rate hike. On top of that, Fitch released their ratings report today, backing up that conclusion. But in the face of that, 35% of major U.S. housing markets have hit all time highs — not highs since the crash, ALL TIME highs. In some markets, like Denver, that may not be surprising, but what if I told you that Detroit, MI, was at an all-time high? And to compound matters, all-cash sales have increased for the 3rd month in a row — which means foreign investors propping up the market. All-in-all, we say it’s anybody’s guess which way home prices go in the new year.

 

Shopping for a house in the middle of winter isn’t for everyone — and neither is selling a house in the middle of winter. And that’s exactly why, if done correctly, this can be the perfect time to buy. Holden Lewis describes his lessons-learned from starting shopping for a home in December, in Toledo, Ohio. Of course, the housing market is particularly strong right now, but even in times of strength there’s seasonality, and for buyers, now might well be the best time of year to look.

 

This is always a tricky topic, and we’ve even seen a series of articles recently suggesting that one should never pay off their mortgage — that having a large, long mortgage is nearly always the most sound financial decision. That seems a bit of a stretch, but Kristin McFarland of The Smarter Investor asks a more reasonable question: should you pay off your mortgage early? Her blog post hits on 6 key areas you should consider before making this decision — and correctly points out that the “right” answer is different for different people.

 

We’ve reported quite a few times this year on the strength of new housing starts, and with today’s job report, that doesn’t look set to change anytime soon. So, in honor of all the new homes being built, we thought it was worth taking a look at the history of the American home. What we found was this great article from FastCompany on their Design site. Better still, the article links to a gorgeous poster, printed on 100 lb. archival stock, which you can purchase for $29 from popchartlab.com. Even if it’s not for you, we bet you know someone for whom it would make the perfect gift!

 

As much as I’ve been blogging about the successful recovery in the housing market, and as much as delinquency rates have gone down, CNN Money correctly points out that there’s one area of the housing market that, while better, is still weighing down the broader market: underwater homes  Down to 13.4%, the number of homes with negative equity is shrinking, but that’s still almost one in every 7 homes that can’t yet be refinanced or get a HELOC. Once those get above water, well, to mix metaphors, a rising ocean lifts all ships.